Food For Thought: Balance of terror – While Taiwan is the cover story, the PLA is purging itself.

"Even though Xi Jinping and Zhang Youxia appear to be temporarily aligned in allowing this military drill to happen, their goals are not the same. Xi Jinping's provocation is purely performative. It's meant to remind people that he still exists, that he still matters politically and in military affairs. He wants people to believe a war is imminent. But in reality, he does not want a real war, because he cannot afford to, because he doesn't really fully control the military. 

"Zhang Youxia, on the other hand, also doesn't want war. But he has no problem letting Xi Jinping play the straw man. He doesn't care one way or the other. as long as he remains Chairman of the Central Military Commission, any escalation, any fallout, any international backlash will land squarely on Xi, not him. So from Zhang Youxia's perspective, he doesn't mind provocation as long as it doesn't spiral out of control. Some people describe this situation as a kind of balance of terror inside the Chinese system. It's subtle, unstable, and deeply dangerous."

"Some people were disappointed in Trump's comments because they felt like Trump should take it seriously.… What's fascinating is what happened next. China Youth Daily, which is a state-run outlet, translated President Trump's interview clip. That very clip where he said he's not too concerned about what's happening, about the military drill that they've been doing this for the past 20 years. 

"That clip got translated into Chinese and posted on [the state-run outlet]. The video received over 100,000 reaction emojis. Almost all of them sarcastic laughing faces clearly mocking the CCP. And some Chinese commented on social media saying that the Americans are laughing at the drills and don't take it seriously. This, my friends, I think is the most painful and demeaning comment that Xi Jinping could ever expect from this drill."

So is a war with Taiwan coming? Not coming? Either way, the problem may solve itself. Xi Jinping is now barely hanging on to whatever remains (one-third) of his power as president. His time is very limited and the incoming power is poise to dismantle the CCP or take it in a very different direction.

More in the Lei's Real Talk video.

Location: China

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